Media Stock Insights from Nielsen’s April TV Snapshot
Spoiler Alert: YouTube continues to dominate
I imagine I sound like a broken record talking about YouTube as much as I do. But I cannot ignore the data just because the trend may be “boring”. As a media analyst, I think Google’s steady takeover of the big screen TV (no mobile) is arguably the biggest trend in global entertainment that is STILL underappreciated by investors. While the future of Google’s Search empire is open to debate, YouTube’s rise is steadily playing out in millions of living rooms across the country.
Now - here are the key takeaways from the April report…
1) YouTube continued at #1, with a new all-time high TV viewing share
Not only did YouTube continue its dominance at #1 with 12.4%, April was yet another all-time high and demonstrates we are nowhere near the ceiling of what is possible. Usually, due to the law of large numbers, it is more difficult to grow when you are already at the top. However, YouTube has now achieved all-time highs in 3 consecutive months – all without any special one-time TV events.
Last April, YouTube was at 9.6%, meaning it gained 2.8 share points over the last year. Put in context, YouTube’s 2.8 share GAIN is more than the absolute TV viewing share today of the Roku Channel (2.4), Paramount+ (2.4), Warner Bros. Discovery (1.5) and Peacock (1.4). YouTube is the biggest reason I am underweight most legacy media names.
2) Netflix still #2, but share gains have plateaued
In April, Netflix was #2 in TV viewing with 7.5%, but that was down slightly YOY from 7.6% in April 2024, and down from 7.9% in March 2025. For the last year, Netflix TV viewing has vacillated between 7.5% and 8.6%, with April 2025 matching October 2024 for the 12-month low.
I believe the reason Netflix has had trouble breaking out to 9%, 10% or higher, is because many of its most watched shows are shared with other streaming services. To be clear, Netflix still has many very successful originals, but part of its strength has come from maximizing TV viewing of popular acquired series such as Grey’s Anatomy (Hulu / Netflix), Young Sheldon (Max / Netflix) and NCIS (Hulu / Netflix / Paramount+).
As you can see in the chart below from Nielsen’s Streaming TV Top 10 – for the week of April 14 – April 20th, those 3 shows I just named accounted for 3 of the top 10 – see my highlights in yellow.
3) Streaming achieved its largest share to date with 44.3% of TV in April
I am doubling down on my statement from last month that based on current trends, I still expect 2025 will be the year we see streaming have a higher share than broadcast and cable combined. March’s 43.8% share was the prior record, and April came in a full half-point higher and is up 1.7 share points since Jan-2025.
In just 1 year (see chart above) streaming added 5.9 share points - going from 38.4% in April 2024 to 44.3% in 2025. That’s a YOY increase of over 15%. I think it’s remarkable that streaming can still grow double-digit percentages despite it already being ubiquitous. The fact that it is still less than 50% shows there’s much more of the pie up for grabs.
Broadcast fell 7% (1.4 share points) YOY and cable fell 16% (4.6 share points). These declines in linear television would have been much worse, if not for April sporting events such as the Masters (CBS), NFL Draft (ESPN), and the opening of the NBA playoffs (ESPN / TNT). A big reason I expect broadcast / cable (combined) to fall under 50% this year, is because the networks are pushing more viewers to consume sports through their respective streamers (HBO Max, Paramount+, etc). I think this strategy is self-defeating. Linear networks are putting sports on streaming to accelerate DTC subscriber growth at a low EBITDA margins, while sacrificing higher-margin cable bundle subs.
My general worldview is that in media, you are either growing or shrinking, but not both. I remain very skeptical that owners of cable networks will somehow convince advertisers to pay a higher CPM on their streaming DTC services, than they do on the cable bundles that are rapidly declining. Ignore YouTube at your own peril.
- Accrued Interest
Disclaimer: The information presented in this Substack is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions regarding the prospects of any company discussed here, as I am not a registered investment advisor.